Reflections on Dobson (re: McCain and Huckabee)
I have reservations about a McCain presidency (immigration reform, traditional marriage, embryonic stem-cell research, campaign finance reform). However, I questioned the wisdom of Dobson's scathing diatribe against McCain earlier this week for several reasons. For one, it seemed a bit late (though this was not the first time Dobson had blasted McCain). But a larger concern was this: Instead of blast McCain on Tuesday, why not endorse Huckabee on Monday? What has changed about Huckabee in the last 72 hours? If Dobson had endorsed Huckabee on Monday (or last Friday!), that might have energized enough turn-out for Huckabee to win Missouri and Oklahoma (which would have narrowed the delegate gap between Huckabee and McCain by about 30%).
So now what do I think? Many will disagree with me, but I think Dobson's forthcoming Huckabee endorsement is better late than never. The endorsement (and any influx of new cash) gives Huckabee the credibility to continue. For Dobson personally, the Huckabee endorsement serves as a positive: It might take some of the edge off of what many see as perpetual negativity (given his previous rejections of Guiliani, Thompson, and McCain, as well as his tendency to lambast the decline of cultural mores and values). But will it matter? Can Huckabee win? Well, I'm neither a prophet nor the son of a prophet, but here are a few thoughts:
1. Almost exactly half of the delegates are yet to be won (1183 delegates have not been awarded compared to 1197 which have). Granted, Huckabee trails McCain by 533 delegates, but he only needs to win more than 60% of the remaining delegates to prevent McCain from clinching the nomination with 1191 delegates. And I'm not an expert on GOP policy, but I think that would mean a brokered convention, into which (under this scenario) Huckabee would enter with very strong momentum (even if McCain had more total delegates).
2. Huckabee and McCain are both running positive, gracious campaigns, and seem amiable toward one another. It remains to be seen if this will continue, but if it does, it could be a welcome opportunity for the GOP to wrestle over their identity. There are some significant policy differences between Huckabee and McCain and I wish Huckabee would spend more time explaining them, and why he is a better choice. But the overall friendliness between the men suggests that one could readily get behind the other when necessary.
3. Currently, there are a lot more Democratic primary voters than Republican. I heard on Fox News this past Tuesday that in some states roughly 2 out of every 3 primary votes are being cast for either Obama or Clinton. Both Obama and Clinton, individually, have more than the 4.7 million votes that McCain has accumulated. Conventional wisdom says an ongoing GOP battle delays the leading candidate's ability to build a national campaign. However, an enlivened two-man debate in an extended primary season could bring out more Republicans (who then might stay engaged in the race and pull the GOP lever in November).
4. I still believe McCain would lose in November. I do not believe he will be able to sufficiently rally conservatives. In some ways, I admire his steadfastness and his willingness to break with his party even if it costs him professionally. But I think it is just that -- his brutal honesty (or allegiance to his own ways) -- that may be his undoing. Let's face it -- he will only go so far in reaching out to conservatives.
5. Huckabee has proven appeal among African Americans (48% in gubernatorial races in Arkansas) and women, two demographic blocs that often plague GOP candidates. And he can win in the south and Midwest--states that Republicans typically need to win.
Update: For another perspective, see Joe Carter's unfolding series on How to Save Conservatism. Two installments have been posted and a third is apparently on the way.
Comments
Dear Alex,
I came over from the Evangelical Outpost blog. I could not agree with you more. For the life of me, I have yet to understand why Dr. Dobson has not already endorsed Mike Huckabee. This raises my suspicions that there must be some residual lingering bad blood between Dr. Dobson and Mike Huckabee over some past incident (which I hope is just some redeemable misunderstanding).
Go Huck! It's not over until it's over!
Posted by: Truth Unites... and Divides | February 8, 2008 12:28 AM
Alex,
I think your observations about Dobson and Huckabee are astute and right on the money. I became a Huckabee supporter back last summer and I thought for sure all evangelical leaders would support him. Boy was I suprised when they didn't. I will take issue with one statement you made. I believe that McCain will win the presidency because of these two reasons:
Hillary Clinton - she is an avowed liberal(no avowed liberal has been elected in recent years) , she is disliked by more people than any candidate running, and she is a woman.
Barak Obama - he is more liberal than Hillary Clinton (enough said), he has no real experience, he is black (which shouldn't be a factor, but the reality is that it will be), and we are in the midst of a war on terror and no one in their right mind is going to vote for a man whose middle name is Hussein.
Besides, McCain has such an appeal with the independent vote. I don't think either democrat has a real chance of winning.
Posted by: Mike Hall | February 8, 2008 07:52 AM
Alex,
On #4: Don't you think that conservatives will still get out the vote on election day, and vote for McCain, simply because he is the "lesser of two evils"? I can't really see conservatives just not voting; I feel like most moral conservative people would want to do anything rather than have Hillary or Obama in office.
Matt
Posted by: Matthew Wilcoxen | February 8, 2008 09:04 AM
Conservatives are beginning to amaze me in their inability to see what's really at stake here.
This election is about more than McCain and his inability to follow conservative principals - and that has been proven true a hundred times.
But how is handing the whole country over to liberals a suitable alternative to McCain?
There is a serious difference between McCain and a pure bread liberal who is bent on destroying ALL conservative values as well as our country with them.
Anti McCain commentators such as Rush Limbaugh have ventured the idea that perhaps we should sit this election out and let the Dems have a term in office, claiming it might pave the way for a future shot at a candidate he and others will like in four years.
Imagine the damage our country will endure if Democrats control all three branches of government for 4 to 8 years.
This would give liberals what they will treat as a clear sign from America that is it ready to move sharply to the left. Not slightly to the left.
My daughters will come of age in the next 4 to 8 years, and I'd rather have 50% of McCains ear than 0% of a destruction bent liberal's ear.
Cherry picking our candidate is exactly what got us INTO this mess, and if conservatives aren’t careful, they may throw the entire country into a liberal spin that can take a decade(s) to pull back out of.
There is no such thing as a quick recovery from 4 years of liberalism unchecked. We may be facing what will take years and years of damage to undo. What’s more, there’s no guarantee that it WILL be undone. Have conservatives completely forgotten Roe v. Wade and other extremely important issues? We need an allie on every core issue we can get.
Questioning McCain was right and highly useful for a time and a season. Many of us wish we had acted sooner to support Romney or Huck....
But staying home on election day allows liberals a pass to capture all THREE branches of Government. Do you want your kids growing up in that kind of environment?
I'm not asking anyone to sacrifice their own belief or convictions, but we have a serious serious problem here, that we can't afford to fall asleep on.
Give it some thought, friends.
Danny Vice
http://weeklyvice.blogspot.com
http://thalunatic.blogspot.com
Posted by: Danny Vice | February 8, 2008 11:05 PM
Good comments.
Mike,
I hope you are right. But, another possibility is that independents will go for the more liberal candidate (who may shift to the center in the general election), and McCain's age may become an issue. Again, please don't get me wrong -- I truly hope you are right.
Matt,
Dr. Dobson and many whom he influences are pledging not to ever vote for a candidate like McCain. I question the wisdom of that pledge - but I realize that many will make and probably keep it. Evangelicals gave Bush a slight edge in the last two elections. If their participation is significantly less in 2008, it would seem that swing states would go to the Dems. Consider my point #3: We may care a lot about the GOP primary, but most voters are casting ballots for Obama or Clinton. In Nov, the GOP nominee needs to either win their hearts or expand the GOP voter base by reaching out to new voters.
I think Huckabee would be better at that. Though I acknowledge McCain has been a formidable primary opponent, I look at the close numbers in some states and believe that had Romney (or Thompson) been out earlier, those voters more naturally gravitate to Huckabee, and he would be extremely competitive (e.g., South Carolina, Missouri, and Oklahoma). Consider, too, that Huckabee has been massively outspent--not just by Romney, but by McCain. Former President Clinton has been quipped that Huckabee is "the one GOP dark horse that everyone has to watch out for." I don't agree with everything Huckabee has done this past year (e.g., insufficient effort in appealing to secular voters--something he did well in Arkansas), but the man's political acumen is seriously and consistently underestimated.
Danny,
I share your concern. I am fairly certain I would cast a ballot for McCain in November if he were the nominee (as would Huckabee). But I see no reason to capitulate now. It seems premature with 50% of the delegates yet to be won. The conversation is good for the GOP to be having as we move beyond the Reagan-Bush legacies.
Bottom Line: I am pleading for a balanced center between two positions:
1. Coronate McCain as the GOP nominee right now, even though only 50% of the delegates have been awarded and large pockets of the GOP remain publicly if not privately skeptical.
2. Pledge never to vote to McCain.
I think Huckabee is saying that both are unwise, and I agree.
Posted by: Alex Chediak | February 9, 2008 05:49 AM